McCain: There Will Be Other Wars
I can't remember the book, but there was an interesting argument that the authors could predict who was going to win a presidential election based almost entirely on how 'positive' they spoke. If it is McCain "There will be more war" versus Obama and his uplifting hopeful message, it will be no contest. Who the hell wants to elect a guy who says that there will be more war? It may be 'straight shooting' but it is a loser -- and scary as hell.
2 comments:
McCain is the opponent I least want in the general. I was salivating over Rudy. I thought that he was an ugly, detestable prick and the more people saw of him the less they would like him. I was right. But it turns out the Republicans caught on too fast.
I think McCain can beat Clinton. It's not a done deal by any stretch of the imagination. It will be an uphill fight and Clinton clearly goes in with the advantage, but I think that Clinton will try to take Iraq of the table to reduce the relevance of her past votes and to give her the maximum freedom of maneuver after she becomes president. McCain will hit her on it until she looks weak and uncertain. The GOP will break out the old Kerry playbook and run it again.
Obama will, I believe, cruise to a rout over any of the possible GOP opponents. He has clearly caught the imagination of the younger generation and he is catching the generation of the older generation. McCain will look like an old, nasty, feeble, grouch next to him if he promises more and more war.
That said, and though I myself am a strong supporter of Obama, I don't think he can overcome Clinton's institutional advantage by Woozy Tuesday. My biggest fear is that he will have enough momentum out of SC to stay in the game, pick up late victories and fall just short, losing to Clinton through party politics and back room deals. That will kill the enthusiasm of the party, and especially of its younger members when it comes to the general.
I want Obama badly, but if he has to lose, dear God, make it quick. Clinton hobbled by a lack of legitimacy within her own party going down the stretch is the clearest route to President McCain.
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