It looks like Obama, by the narrowest of margins, won last night’s delegate hunt. By our estimates, he picked up 840 to 849 delegates versus 829-838 for Clinton; the Obama camp projects winning by nine delegates (845-836). He also won more states (13 to Clinton’s eight; New Mexico is still outstanding), although she won the most populous ones (California and New York). And Obama’s argument that he might be the most electable Democrat in a general election was bolstered by the fact that he won nine red states versus four for Clinton. Yet with Clinton’s overall superdelegate lead (259-170, based on the lists they've released to us), and when you toss in the 63-48 lead Obama had among pledged delegates going into Super Tuesday, it appears Clinton has about 70 more overall delegates than Obama does (1140-1150 for Clinton versus 1070 to 1080 for Obama).
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
A Dem split decision
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From the Globe:
"But in interviews in Boston yesterday, black women overwhelmingly said they voted for Obama. Those who said race factored into their decision said they were not necessarily voting for Obama because he would be the first black president; instead, they said they had decided not to vote for Clinton because of remarks that she and her husband had made about Obama that they perceived as racist."
Can somebody fill me in on just what they (Hill and Bill) said that was perceived as racist? I'm missing something here.
They didn't say anything directly racist, but Bill tried to blow off Obama's victory in SC by comparing it to Jesse Jackson's meaningless victories there in '84 and '88, both taking place after the nomination had already been decided. When this was coupled with statements by campaign staff that Obama was now perceived as just another token "black candidate" it was seen as part of a conscious strategy to divide the Democratic coalition between black and white on the calculation that there were more whites than blacks and that the blacks would come back in the general.
One can argue whether that perception is fair or not, but in any event it seems to be what is behind Clinton's near-total collapse of support from blacks.
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